Risk factors and identification tools

High risk of lethality factors

Child protection decisions and interventions need to be informed by recognising the: 

• signs the domestic and family violence may become more severe or frequent 
• groups of people who are more vulnerable to the impacts of the violence.  

The following factors are commonly identified as key signifiers of a high likelihood of the domestic and family violence reoccurring with serious injury or death as the result (Toivonen and Backhouse, The State of Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney-General, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (a)). 

These risk factors are indicative (not predictive), and we use these to guide child protection risk assessment and subsequent decision making. The higher frequency or severity of the violence, both now and over time across past and current relationships, the higher risk of harm to a child living with a person using violence or victim-survivor. 

The relationship between these factors and risk of re-assault or lethality are not straightforward and no single factor can be considered predictive. Each indicator is salient and should be responded to appropriately and proportionately, whether or not there is a clear intent of homicide.

Domestic and family violence can take diverse forms and have devastating effect on victims’ and their children’s lives whilst not necessarily involving these risk factors. Each situation must be thoroughly considered as serious cases may be left out of a system which only prioritises intervention to those with clearly identifiable high risk factors (Toivonen and Backhouse). 

Practice prompt questions are included to guide engagement (with family or notifier) and elicit information to explore if this factor is present. 

Separation – actual or pending

Women are most at risk of being killed or seriously harmed during and immediately after separation from the person using violence.

Where violence or coercive and controlling behaviour has occurred it is common for men using violence to continue or escalate the violence after separation as they attempt to gain or reassert control over the victim, or to punish the victim for leaving the relationship.

Research suggests a perpetrator’s perception (it doesn’t have to be true) that the victim has re-partnered also escalates risk. 

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander parents’ decision to separate can be further complicated as the plan to leave a violent relationship may involve severing ties with their family, extended family, kin, community, and culture.

When parents separate there is increased risk of harm to the child’s psychological and physical wellbeing (Jaffe et al.) from:

• the exposure to ongoing, escalating, or unpredictable nature of violence, which may worsen in the context of separation 
• the history of maltreatment
• parental stress regarding the separation
• social isolation 
• inadequate resources and support for the parent who is acting protectively
• post-separation abuse (emptying bank accounts, refusing to contribute material or practical support for children, asking the children to spy on their mother and report back).

Escalation (frequency or severity) 

The escalation in frequency and severity of violence over time is linked to lethality and often occurs when there are shifts in other dynamic risk factors, such as the attempts by the victim to leave the relationship. Victims may also report less ‘predictability’ in the violence, in the context of that escalation.

Escalations can be the trigger for the department to be notified and may come about due to a child’s disclosure of a change in the nature of the violence. 

When there is an escalation in either frequency or severity of physical violence, abused women are over five times more likely to be killed (Toivonen and Backhouse).Police investigations and court proceedings (family, criminal or civil) can trigger escalations in the aggressive and violent behaviour of the person using violence and heighten risk to the victim and children (Toivonen and Backhouse). Transition points such as these should be treated with great caution.

Sexual violence or jealousy

Intimate partner sexual violence is a uniquely dangerous form of exerting power and control due to its invasive attack on victims’ bodies and the severity of mental health, physical injury, and gynaecological consequences. Strangulation and sexual violence often co-occur, and the strangulation may be framed as ‘consensual’ or part of a ‘kink’. 

More than other factors, this is under-reported by victim-survivors due to shame and the stigma caused by commonly held assumptions about both victims and perpetrators of sexual violence. This shame may prevent many victim-survivors from disclosing this violence, even when asked directly. 

The best option to establish sexual violence or jealousy is to build rapport with victim-survivors, normalise these elements of DFV and ask directly and discreetly about it. However, as sexual violence is less likely to be disclosed, it’s important to also look out for some of the markers for it, including rapid, early or frequent pregnancy, children who are closely spaced together, or attitudes that support ideas that women ‘owe’ their male partners sexual access or that ‘all women cheat’. 

Coercive control 

Coercive control is the pattern of abusive behaviours men who use violence employ to control, manipulate, and dominate. 

When a perpetrator is intensely preoccupied with the victim or continuously suspected or accused the victim of infidelity, his perception leads to controlling behaviours which can involve: 

• spatially confining or restraining the victim 
• asserting exclusive possession over the victim 
• monopolising the victim’s skills and resources 
• restricting the victim’s access to finances and employment
• preventing the victim from 
  • connecting with social networks
  • escaping the abusive relationship 
  • seeking help and support 
• isolating the victim physically and socially over time 
• undermining the victim’s sense of identity, independence, and self-worth.

Coercive control may present as sexual jealousy, often with an ‘accelerated courtship early in the relationship. In these situations, the victim-survivor experiences the start of the relationship as extremely romantic, loving and affectionate with behaviour such as excessive compliments, gifts and declarations of love (known as ‘love bombing’).

Based on this early and (artificially) deep connection, victim-survivors are convinced to move very quickly into situations of dependence. For example, they move in together, reduce resources to only one car, move to an isolated area away from her job or support network, get pregnant, get engaged or married or make large financial commitments together.

Once the victim-survivor is dependent and enmeshed with the person using violence, more controlling behaviour emerges.  

Threats to kill

This includes threats to kill themselves, children, person experiencing violence or others. 

Hart’s pioneering study found the combination of attempts, threats or fantasies of suicide, availability of weapons, obsessiveness, perpetrator isolation and drug and alcohol consumption indicate severe or lethal future violence (Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (a)).

We must take seriously any threat to kill or attempt suicide by considering: 

• does he have the means?
• is there intent (generally the threat itself suggests intent)?
• the previous and recent behaviour (for example, have there been previous attempts?) 
• the nature and details within the threat (for example, a threat which is very specific and describes ‘how’, is of higher risk than a more general statement).

The victim-survivor’s perception that they are currently at high risk

The victim’s self-perception of a high risk of serious injury or death is one of the strongest predictors of future domestic and family violence. If a victim-survivor says that he might kill her, we should believe her, regardless of how we may otherwise assess their presentation (Australasian Institute of Judicial Administration Inc). 

History of domestic and family violence

Violence in the preceding year is the most consistently identified risk factor of imminent intimate partner lethality or serious injury. Homicide is rarely a random act and often occurs after repeated patterns of physical and sexual abuse and psychologically coercive and controlling behaviours (Toivonen and Backhouse, Australasian Institute of Judicial Administration Inc).

The risk of life-threatening injury or death is higher where the past violence experienced by the victim-survivor occurred within the last year and included at least one incident where the person using violence: 

• used or threatened to use a firearm or knife 
• strangled or choked her 
• made a death threat of any kind to her
• has increased the frequency or severity of threatened or actual physical violence towards her
• has breached previous domestic violence orders or shown a disregard for authority.

If someone has a history of violence in this or previous relationships this is an indicator of their propensity to harm others and should be considered with risk assessment.  

Non-fatal strangulation (choking) at any time

Victims of non-lethal strangulation in the last year were twice as likely to be killed. 

Strangulation increases risk levels of the possibility of subsequent and life-threatening injuries. The act of strangulation introduces a credible threat of death. This threat can act as an element of coercive control.  

Strangulation does not always leave visible marks. If the person experiencing violence reports being strangled recently, they should be encouraged to access immediate medical attention, especially if they lost consciousness, are disoriented, have headaches, have vocal changes, or lost control of their bladder or bowels (indicators of hypoxia or other damage).

Strangulation and sexual violence often co-occur, making the person experiencing violence less likely to report the strangulation.

Stalking behaviours

Stalking behaviours include technology-facilitated surveillance, GPS tracking, persistent calling  or texting.

Research shows stalking behaviours were a factor in 85% of attempted femicide and 76% of femicide (Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (a)). 

Stalking and surveillance can be done in person (by the man using violence or by others doing his bidding) or via technology. It can often be hidden or insidious in nature and represents a threat to psychological and physical wellbeing.

When working with victims to improve their and their children’s safety, it is important to accept technology and GPS tracking are universal in our daily lives it is not realistic or fair to ask victims to reduce or remove their online presence.

Weapons (any object that can injure, kill, or destroy property)

The severity of abuse-related harm is significantly heightened when weapons are involved. Previous use of a weapon (or the threat to use one) in the commission of an assault elevates the current risk level.

Anything can be used as a weapon (for example, firearms, knives, kitchen implements, chains or cords, pieces of wood, cars).

Pregnancy or new birth

Violence perpetrated against pregnant women by a partner is a significant indicator of future harm to the woman and child and is the primary cause of death to mothers during pregnancy, both in Australia and internationally (Toivonen and Backhouse). 

Research shows domestic and family violence often begins when women are pregnant or have recently given birth. Where violence was previously occurring, it often escalates in frequency and severity during pregnancy and early motherhood (Clements et al.).

This escalation can be due to the person using violence finding the pregnancy threatening due to the: 

• increased visibility of the victim in the community (attending antenatal appointments)
• increased attention from family and friends 
• victim focussing on their pregnancy making them less physically and emotionally available to the person using violence (Campo (a)).

Unplanned or unwanted pregnancy is more common among women experiencing domestic and family violence. The person using violence may have: 

• forced or coerced her into pregnancy through emotional manipulation, contraception sabotage or forced unprotected sex
• intended the pregnancy to prevent her from working or studying, or to otherwise exercise control over her
• refused to accept the pregnancy and accused her of infidelity. 

The risk remains high once the baby is born as the woman’s focus shifts to the baby, it challenges the abuser's belief that he should control her and that she must remain emotionally and physically available to him. This can lead to escalated jealousy and possessiveness (Campo (a)).

Pregnancy and early motherhood create greater physical, emotional, and financial dependence for women on their partners, heightening their vulnerability to domestic and family violence. This, in turn, enhances the perpetrator’s ability to exert power and control. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, young women between 18-24 years and women with a disability are at a significantly higher risk severe domestic and family violence during pregnancy (Campo (a)).

Evidence also shows assaults during these vulnerable periods is ‘double intentioned’ violence, where the person using violence aims physical violence at their partner’s abdominal area, genitals, and breasts, so the abuse is to both mother and unborn child (Campo (a)). Violence perpetrated against pregnant women can be particularly dangerous due to the significant negative impacts on both the mother and unborn child or newborn infant. This can include increased mental and physical illness for the mother, increased risk the foetus will be miscarried, or long-term effects on the child after birth (Cooper).  

Isolation and barriers to help seeking

People using violence may control and limit interactions for the victim including with their friends, family, social supports, or community programs.

In regional, remote, and rural communities further compounding and exacerbating factors include:

• a lack of independent communication away from fathers due to no mobile telephone or internet reception 
• the common presence of firearms
• reduced privacy and confidentiality when accessing support or health services
• family members may be regarded as upstanding citizens who play important or public role in the functioning of the close-knit community making disclosure or support seeking more difficult
• fear of ridicule and bringing shame to their family who live in the area
• slower response times from police or ambulance services
• •    a lack of services – particularly for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples including medical, police and legal assistance. 

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples can experience further violence and oppression by programs or services that are built from a ‘white’ perspective. This can include experiences of racism, being approached in culturally insensitive ways, feeling judged, having their confidentiality breached, being subjected to actions that isolate them from their community, and feeling pressured to do things they are reluctant or are unable to do (Emerging Minds).

Abuse of pets or other animals.

Cruelty and harm directed to pets or animals is often an indicator of future or more severe violence and is often used as a control tactic by men who use violence. 

The link between animal cruelty and perpetration of domestic family violence is strong and when observed should trigger further investigation into the safety of children.

Parenting, child protection or other court proceedings

These processes are often occurring in the context of separation and can be a critical risk factor.

Domestic and family violence may escalate during separation and engagement with the court system can introduce systems-abuse by men who use violence and may include:

• using the child ‘like a weapon’ to harass, intimidate or exert control over the victim
• disrespecting ‘live with’ and ‘spends time with’ orders or arrangements
• threatening the victim, that they will lose contact or custody of the child
• undermine the victim’s parental authority (Beeble et al., Wallace H. and Roberson)
• making persistent reports or complaints about the mother to systems.

Other factors which increase risk 

When the following factors are also present within the context of domestic and family violence, they are recognised as increasing the volatility of domestic and family violence. 

Misuse of alcohol or other drugs

Alcohol and drug misuse by perpetrators or victims may indicate increased risk in the frequency and severity of violence or an increased risk of vulnerability for the victim. 

The perpetrator’s misuse of alcohol or other drugs is likely to be an aggravating factor leading to higher levels of aggression and consequently more serious injury.

A person using violence may also use coercive tactics to target a partner’s use of substances as part of a broader pattern of abuse and control. They may use their partner’s use of a substance as justification of their controlling or violence behaviour towards them, use it to coerce sex or sexually assault their partner or encourage their use to progress to addiction (Phillips et al). 

It is important that patterns of use or misuse are assessed as part of the exploration of risk. Some risk is influenced by the person using violence being under the influence, whereas in other situations, a lack of access to drugs or alcohol can trigger a person’s use of violence. 

Step-child / blended families

Several studies have found the risk and severity of domestic and family violence is higher when one parent has a non-biological relationship with a child (Campbell et al. (b), Miner et al.). Several studies have shown the prevalence and severity of violence towards women is higher with some or all children fathered by someone other than the perpetrator including they are 30% more likely to experience lethal harm (Australasian Institute of Judicial Administration Inc).  

The common risk and safety framework

This framework includes a series of risk assessment and safety planning tools to help keep victim-survivors and their children safe. Level 1 and 2 tools provide questions and prompts to assist a domestic and family violence-informed approach to interactions with notifiers, children, and families. (Refer to the Common Risk and Safety Framework on the Queensland Government website.)